World Series Home-Field Advantage: The Facts!
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All in all, this section probably poses more questions than it answers. The previous sections have allowed us to reach conclusions about the topics addressed therein, and many of the answers were not surprising. There is clearly a surprising result—that home-field advantage is much larger in the middle games of the series—and my hypothesis as to why that might be is not necessarily correct. I also separated the home-field advantage for inter-league games and for intraleague games as well as for inter-division games within the same league.
Though a relatively small percentage of World Series reach seven games, home-field advantage is still important in the Fall Classic. We hope this guide has answered all of your questions about how the MLB playoffs work. We know that the different formats in each rounds kind of make it all confusing. For more information, be sure to check out our other baseball related blog articles. Since the 2018 season, determining home-field advantage in the World Series no longer relies on the all-star game and instead focuses on which team had the superior regular-season record.
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That’s just a shade over half of the games, so there wasn’t a massive advantage for home squads in 2019. However, we have to caution that the sample size is only a single year. The home-field advantage could be more dramatic in some years. We have two pitchers that can handle the bat with Houston’s Zack Greinke and Washington’s Stephen Strasburg. However, since Strabsurg is set to pitch Game 2 in Houston and Greinke Game 3 in DC, the Nationals will have less of a potential advantage at home with the NL rules.
It can give a team an extra boost of confidence and the crowd can be a big factor in helping a team win. During the 2010 regular season , teams at home have won by an average margin of 2.1 points. The home team has a substantial advantage over the visiting team in terms of home field advantage. If the series goes to the limit, the team with the most games hosted in a best-of-five or best-of-seven format has the advantage. Only the wild-card team is given the home field advantage in the regular season (or head-to-head record if two or more teams tie). The reason home teams won only six times during the 2012 NHL playoffs?
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If you simply look at the league average over the years, you’ll find playing in the friendly confines is worth about 0.15 runs. Since its introduction in 1994, 12 teams have made the postseason as a wild card - 10 from the National League and 2 from the American League. Of these 12 teams, 5 have won the World Series - 4 straight from 1997 to 2000 and then again in 2012 and 2013. The other 5 winners included 2 pennant races and 2 split series .
Since travel seems to be playing a large part in home-field advantage, in the next section we will look at home-field advantage in different games within a series as well as with different series lengths. We will also consider whether off days and consecutive series at home or away play a role in home-field advantage. Baseball’s home-field advantage has remained a valuable feature over time. The percentage of games won by home teams at home is 54%, the highest percentage in any sport.
Will home-field advantage exist in MLB's shortened and fan-less 2020 season?
All of these differences are statistically significant at the 99.9 percent level. It is clear that, at home, batters are able to reach safely more often. It is not clear how much of the difference in outs on balls in play is hitting and how much is fielding, so, for some clues, it may be useful to look at some indicators of defense.
Exhaustion from traveling longer distances and time away from home might lead to this bizarre outcome. It appears that home teams do pretty much everything better than road teams do. They hit the ball more, they hit the ball harder, they throw more strikeouts, and they surrender fewer walks.
This table simply lays out the number of times in each MLB postseason the team with home-field advantage won its matchup. The most instances in which a club with home-field advantage won in each October is six in 2009, but in 2006 only one home team won at all—that's rather remarkable. Under the new system, the team with the better record will open the World Series at home. If both teams have the same record, the next tiebreaker is head-to-head record. If that doesn’t solve it, the team with the best record within its own division gets home-field advantage. The team with the best regular season record will open the October Classic.
It feels like a lost opportunity, considering the Red Sox are an explosive offensive team in their home ballpark. Manager Dave Roberts comes in with a loaded squad and an ace, Clayton Kershaw, who would like to prove once and for all that he's the best pitcher in the regular season and in October. Beginning Tuesday with the American League Wild Card Game, the official month-long dance to the World Series title begins.
Playing at home does not necessarily indicate what it did five years ago, but where the field is located can do so as well. According to John Murray, some stadiums are becoming popular destinations for opposing fans. Depending on the team and stadium, home field advantage is most likely worth anywhere between zero and 1.5 points now. During COVID-restricted games, home field advantage reached an inflection point because many of them were played in completely empty stadiums. Fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers were booed as they left Chavez Ravine before the team’s Game 3 NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves.
National League rosters are built for lineup depth, not for having nine hitters in the lineup at all times like an AL team must do with a Designated Hitter. That ninth hitter will usually be stronger for an American League team. Similarly, with more raucous crowds can more easily sway umpires to make a borderline call in favor of the home team. Now, this human bias has been diminished on some plays with the introduction of replay but it still occurs with umpires calling balls and strikes behind home plate. Now, there are obviously exceptions for teams with unique home-field advantages due to other factors such as altitude or quirky parks but 54% is a safe assumption in general.
Home-field advantage is enacted by scheduling four of the possible seven games at the advantaged team’s home stadium. In order to qualify for the MLB playoffs, a team must secure one of the ten available spots during the regular season. For team-based sports, there’s typically a home side and an away side. It’s common knowledge that the team that doesn’t have to do any traveling has a slight advantage heading into the contest. Some venues are traditionally more difficult for visitors to play in as a result. As examples, consider home games for the Seattle Seahawks of the NFL at CenturyLink field, or for college basketball’s Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Applying these findings to the 2013 baseball playoffs—at least so far—proves much the same. While the Pirates and Red Sox took care of business, the Indians and Braves lost. Beginning in 2017, home-field advantage in the World Series is awarded to the team with the better regular-season winning percentage. With the MLB regular season coming to a close, many fans are wondering how the playoffs work. In this comprehensive guide, we will answer all of those questions and more!
It may seem like much of this could still be psychological, but I believe that a large portion of it is not. Some of the reasons will become clearer later in this article. One indicator that much of home-field advantage is not psycho- logical is unearned runs. If psychology is playing a significant role, then chances are that it will cause pitchers to be more prone to frustration and let problems escalate.
Since 2004, home teams have won 54% of their games during the regular season (meaning road teams win 46% of the time). It is pretty common knowledge in sports that the home team usually does have some kind of an advantage. The key here is that we can actually take these numbers and translate them into betting lines. Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, will host the 2021 World Series. The Houston Astros will host the World Series this year, whereas the Atlanta Braves will host the Atlanta Braves.
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